Fidelity: The third wave of deflation is over

By Dominic Rossi,  Global Chief Investment Officer, Equities at Fidelity

Developed economies have stood up well to the latest wave of deflation emanating from emerging economies that has seen a combined volume and price shock depress global trade and output. This third wave of deflation (coming after the financial crisis of 2008-9 and the European sovereign crisis of 2011-12) is now over, as is the period of dollar appreciation which was tightening financial conditions. Indeed, dollar strength has ultimately acted as the catalyst for muchneeded central bank coordination that is now easing financial conditions. Fears that the US might enter a recession now look exaggerated and I expect another up-leg in the bull market in US equities.

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The recent bounce in emerging markets and commodities from distressed levels will most likely fade as both areas still face pressing structural challenges, which will take years to work through. Instead, I see leadership reverting to those areas least impaired by recent developments; that is the sectors with high levels of intangible assets and intellectual property, such as information technology and healthcare.

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