게시판 즐겨찾기
편집
드래그 앤 드롭으로
즐겨찾기 아이콘 위치 수정이 가능합니다.
후쿠시마 암 발병률 질문
게시물ID : fukushima_1522짧은주소 복사하기
작성자 : 14CO
추천 : 2
조회수 : 567회
댓글수 : 3개
등록시간 : 2013/09/21 01:22:39

EBS 비연계 영어 교재 풀다가 이런 지문이 나와서요. 
요지는 암 발병률이 크게 증가 하지 않았다는 건데...이거 정말인가요;;

CATCHING a flight out of Fukushima in the wake of the nuclear disaster two years ago would have given you a larger dose of radiation than staying put.

This is the upshot of a new report from the World Health Organization estimating that for residents exposed to the radiation leak, the risk of developing cancer has increased only slightly.

People had been most worried about an increase in thyroid cancer, due to exposure to radioactive iodine. The report says the risk has increased by 70 per cent, but in practice this only adds 0.5 per cent to the existing risk. This would mean that a woman's lifetime risk of getting thyroid cancer might rise from 0.75 to 1.25 if she had been exposed as an infant. The margin of increase for other cancers was much lower. 

After Chernobyl, most of the population got a dose of less than 9 millisieverts of radiation over 20 years, says Gerry Thomas at Imperial College London – less than an international flight.

This article appeared in print under the headline "Cancer risk still low"

출처:http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21729073.300-cancer-risk-lower-than-feared-for-fukushima-locals.html

전체 추천리스트 보기
2013-09-21 05:32:26추천 0
http://hps.org/publicinformation/ate/faqs/commercialflights.html
이거 보면 지문이 완전 구라임을 알 수 있음.
댓글 0개 ▲
2013-09-21 08:57:45추천 0
이 게시판의 베스트 보기 누르신 다음에 갑상선암 관련 글 읽어보세요. 날이 갈수록 발병률이 급증하고 있습니다
댓글 0개 ▲
2013-09-21 09:00:26추천 0
이거 참 어이가 없어서. 일단, 체르노빌의 경우 암 보고서가 나오는데, 몇 십년 걸립니다. 이유가.. 병원 기록을 가져오기가 쉽지 않았고, 가져와도 분석하기가 쉽지 않았습니다. 분석한다고 해도 대부분 미미한 변화를 보이기 때문에 과학적인 증거로 보기에는 문제가 있었습니다. 그나마 갑상선암은 많이 걸리기 때문에 유의미하다고 인정을 하긴 하지만, 나머지 암들은 변화를 찾기에는 너무 미미하거든요. 후쿠시마가 벌써 결과가 나왔다는 건, 뭔가 좀 억지스럽습니다.

뭐 나왔다고 칩시다. 본문에 따르면 갑상선암 0.5% 증가인데.. 이게 미미한 건가? 라는 건 본문만 봐서는 알 수 가 없습니다. 후쿠시만 현이 약 200만인데, 후쿠시마 현으로 따지면, 약 만명의 암환자가 발생한 거거든요. 앞으로는 더 심할 건데, 벌써부터 만명이면.. 만약 일본을 기준으로 한 거면 1억3천 쯤 잡으면, 무려 65만명입니다. 퍼센트 증가와 함께 범위도 같이 고려해야 되는 거죠.

방사능이 문제가 되는 건, 확산을 막을 수 없다는 겁니다. 게다가 이렇게 확산이 되면 과학적으로 유의미한 통계치를 내기가 정말 힘듭니다. 쫙 퍼졌기 때문에 각 지역별로는 암 발생률 증가가 아주 미미하거든요. 세계 전체의 암 발생 환자 중 후쿠시마에 의한 증가율을 구한다고 생각해 보세요. 전 세계 병원 자료에서 환자의 발병 원인등을 조사해서 모아야 하는데.. 말이 안 되잖아요. 이게 실험도 불가능하기 때문에 과학적인 증거를 잡기가 매우 어렵습니다. 정확하지 않아요 근본적으로.

벌써 결과가 나왔다구요? 이건 뭐.. 웃지요 그냥.
댓글 0개 ▲
새로운 댓글이 없습니다.
새로운 댓글 확인하기
글쓰기
◀뒤로가기
PC버전
맨위로▲
공지 운영 자료창고 청소년보호